RUDY REDUX – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  One of the most frequent questions we get here at Urgent Agenda is, "Whatever happened to Rudy Giuliani?"  The former mayor, and a true hero of 9-11, is in private business, paying a high tax rate, but is often mentioned when electoral politics comes up, and he regularly speaks on behalf of Republican candidates.  The Hill even believes that Rudy has a good shot at the GOP 2012 presidential nomination.  This is an unusual take, but an intriguing one:

As a 2008 primary front-runner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani tanked. But as a 2012 dark horse, he could do surprisingly well.

It’s not because Giuliani has shifted; it’s because the Republican Party has. The 2010 election was less about social conservatism than it was fiscal conservatism, and that aligns with Giuliani’s socially moderate and fiscally conservative ideology.

There is another promising wind of change blowing Giuliani’s way, one that’s less ideological. This isn’t the era of kinder, gentler politicians. This is the age of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — three politicians whose appeal lives, partly, in their aggressive rhetoric.

But, according to Giuliani, he started the political fad. When explaining Christie’s appeal to the New York Post, Giuliani said: “What’s making him popular is that he’s not afraid to be called a bully. I used to be proud to be called a bully, and Christie would call me and tell me, ‘I’m going to do it just the way you did.' "

Thus, both the national ideology and aesthetics of these political times are more favorable to Giuliani than, perhaps, at any time in his political career.

COMMENT:  I've always admired Rudy.  He was a great mayor of New York, and a pioneer in effective crime fighting.  His policies dramatically reduced the violent crime rate in New York City, and brought the city back.  Compare please with Chicago, still a mess.

But Rudy as a presidential candidate...again?  I dunno.  He is certainly aggressive, but "aggressive" often doesn't wear well in presidential politics.  Yes, Ronald Reagan was aggressive, but with a smile and a vision of "morning in America."  Rudy has never been accused of being the sunshine type. 

One thing could challenge this assessment:  If we are hit again, in a major terrorist attack, or a series of attacks, Rudy might turn out to be The Man, the one America looks to for backbone and leadership.  We hope a tragedy doesn't occur, of course.  But, if it does, watch Rudy.

December 22, 2010